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Green Bay Packers ( 2 - 3 )

• Total Offense = 21st
• Passing Offense =15th
• Rushing Offense =20th
  
• Total Defense = 16th
• Passing Defense =16th
• Rushing Defense =17th
  
• Points For = 21.4 (18th)
• Points Against = 22.2 (14th)

Houston Texans ( 5 - 0 )

• Total Offense = 14th
• Passing Offense = 20th
• Rushing Offense =6th
  
• Total Defense = 3rd
• Passing Defense = 4th
• Rushing Defense =9th
  
• Points For = 29.8 (3rd)
• Points Against = 14.6 (4th)

On paper Green Bays defense doesn't look that bad.
Looking at Houstons numbers a person has to wonder how they are 5-0.
Weak schedule to date maybe?

Ordinarily I would go with the Packers here but due to their performance to date not very confident. Texans will cover the spread.

Points For = 21.4 (18th)
Points Against = 22.2 (14th)

Points For = 29.8 (3rd)
Points Against = 14.6 (4th)




That's what sticks out the most to me.

Packers 17
Texans 38


I only go this route because I have no confidence in Mike McCarthy calling enough running plays for Starks and Green to give Aaron Rodgers a chance.

Over/under on Rodgers sacks is about 8 I'm guessing.

This could be an interesting game.
Short week for the Texans and we had a horrific and embarrassing collapse.
We tend to play better against the better teams so I wouldn't be shocked if we pulled this one out.

For some reason I have a good feeling about this game.
We always seem to play down to our opponents (Colts game for example) and play good against better teams.
I don't know why, but that just seems to be how it goes sometimes.


However, I wouldn't be surprised to see us get beat here.
The Texans are very good at running the ball, which is going to be a problem for us.
Especially with BJ Raji nursing that ankle (I'm not sure how serious it is?).
I don't see Andre Johnson being a big problem in this one though because I think we will play him much like we did against Brandon Marshall.


The matchup doesn't seem desirable for Green Bay this week, but I can see us pulling it out.


Packers 24
Texans 17

yooperfan;220191On paper Green Bays defense doesn't look that bad.
Looking at Houstons numbers a person has to wonder how they are 5-0.
Weak schedule to date maybe?

Ordinarily I would go with the Packers here but due to their performance to date not very confident. Texans will cover the spread.

Texans have a sick D and they don't turn the ball over on O.
That's why they're 5-0.

We can beat ANY team in the NFL.
Unfortunately, we can also throw up stinkers against any team like we did against the Colts last week.


Thus, no prediction from me.

Some notes on this game.. (from my notebook the highlights)

The Packers Must:

1) Limit the effectiveness of the run.

The Texans pass only 46.63% of the time through 5 games and only 61.61% of their yards come from the pass, and play action is a staple in their offense. So we need to play at least 6 in the box, with focus on the Left Edge of the offensive line and the Guard/Tackle gaps on the right. It is going to be vital that we set the edge on defense and funnel the Texans to run in the middle.


Breakdowns of how they run.



Rotate the defensive lineman often to keep them fresh, just contain the run in any fashion possible without dropping extra players into the box. Resign Merling for this game, I have more confidence in Merling in the run than Neal. Put Benson on the Returnable IR. ;)

Please limit the 2 man Defensive Line fronts.. unless it is to funnel the runs inside. Hawk has been playing much closer to the line of scrimmage, DJ Smith has got to plug the holes. Bishop will be missed in this game.. but Smith has to pop Sunday Night.

2) Even up the Time of Possession

To date, the Texans lead the league in Time of Possession at 35:29 per game, leaving their defense on the sidelines and in the top 10 in the fewest defensive snaps. We have to balance that out some with controlling the ball and keeping them off schedule in terms of their balance.

We have already played three defenses that allow less per play in Seattle, Niners, and the Bears. We have to find a way to sustain drives.. and we have to apply a little pressure on them to gamble a bit more on offense. The Texans are in bottom third of the league in yards per rush and but are the fifth stingiest in pass yards per play and 4th in passing yards allowed per game.

Run the Ball and effectively.

We are going to have to buck the odds a bit against their defense.. they currently are allowing on 26 % conversion on 3rd down attempts.. conversely we are allowing 36% on 3rd downs on defense. We convert around 40% of the time on 3rd downs (middle of the pack in the NFL) so we have to pick that up on offense.

3. If we can limit their run, it will trickle down by limiting the play action pass thus their passing game.

This team runs play action a great deal to make their passing game flow, past Johnson, they don't have many guys that can beat coverage consistently by themselves. Maybe Daniels with matchups, but the collective guys not named Johnson should be able to be covered in man. Johnson snaps are being reduced and he seems to lack the same explosion as early in his career (he is nicked up). So we have to minimize the effect of the play action pass and not bite on the run fakes.

If we can limit the run with the box players, we will assist in this priority.The Texans don't have a real good passing game, they are somewhat dependent on the play action pass.. take this away.


4. The Interior of our offensive line has to win their matchups.

The Texans, in my opinion, have the best interior pressure in the league between Watt and Smith. Beyond the interior pass rush, the Texans only have 5 sacks in 5 games, 2 of those on DB blitzes. If we can keep the pocket formed in the interior of the line, we should be able to handle the remaining pressure. If they cannot, this would be a prime team to roll the pocket on and make Watt especially consume even more energy in getting pressure.

5. Take advantage of their special teams.

The Texans are in the bottom third of the league in punt return coverage and kick return coverage. We need to take advantage of those weaknesses and give us an assist in field position.

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Texans, to me, is going to be a similar game to the Niners. And we should of and could have won that game.

We can win this game.. this is not a team that cannot be beaten. We should have a chance to win this game late or hold the lead late. Time to rectify some demons. We just need to play up to our potential and eliminate mistakes as often as possible.

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Oh boy...this does not look good to me.

I'm thinking I'll steal Zero's Packers - 17

Texans - 38

Nope, not looking good at all.

The collapse sucked but lets look at this... the Texans' 5 wins have come against teams with a TOTAL of 8 wins after 5 weeks.

We can win this game if we get our heads out of our asses and wake up.

With the Bears next three opponents being the Lions at home, the Panthers, and the Titans, the Texans game now becomes a MUST win for Green Bay. Chicago will most likely be 6-2 coming out of the next three. If GB falls to three or more behind they will be hard pressed to make a wildcard berth.

So, I'm predicting a huge Green Bay Win....OUTRIGHT

PACKERS
31
TEXANS
24